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Infectious disease grid surveillance · Siming District, Xiamen

Multi-level Small-area Infectious Disease Risk Assessment

Subdistrict- and community-level surveillance with short-term outlooks, built on weekly aggregated alert signals.

This page looks at risk across nested grid levels — district, subdistrict and community — using Siming’s three tiers as a worked example.

  • Feb 19, 2025 – Feb 5, 2026
  • 87 communities observed
  • Aggregate data only

  • About the data

    3,508 alert signals, aggregated by ISO week into 98 monitoring series (1 district, 10 subdistricts, 87 communities). Only weekly, area-level counts are published — no individual- or institution-level records.

    The source records only when each signal was generated, not onset or report dates, so these curves describe the rhythm of alert generation rather than an epidemic curve of cases.

High-risk communities
56
Warning / watch communities
19
Series with an outlook
62
Monitoring series
98

District trend

Weekly district signals and short-term outlook

Weekly district signals and short-term outlook

The solid line shows observed weekly counts for the whole district; the dashed line is a 2-week statistical outlook joined to the last observation. The shaded band from W40 marks the influenza season for context only — it does not imply a fitted annual seasonal model.

  • Observed
  • Outlook
0 250 500 750 1,000 Flu season (from W40) Peak 2025-W48 · 615 2025-W08: 152025-W09: 432025-W10: 212025-W11: 202025-W12: 62025-W13: 122025-W14: 12025-W15: 22025-W16: 12025-W17: 102025-W18: 42025-W19: 32025-W20: 22025-W21: 32025-W22: 32025-W23: 22025-W24: 52025-W25: 42025-W26: 82025-W27: 92025-W28: 42025-W29: 02025-W30: 02025-W31: 02025-W32: 12025-W33: 02025-W34: 12025-W35: 02025-W36: 22025-W37: 202025-W38: 312025-W39: 512025-W40: 162025-W41: 182025-W42: 652025-W43: 1012025-W44: 1392025-W45: 2012025-W46: 2802025-W47: 4112025-W48: 6152025-W49: 5972025-W50: 3502025-W51: 1272025-W52: 862026-W01: 602026-W02: 312026-W03: 612026-W04: 402026-W05: 192026-W06: 7 2026-W07: 42026-W08: 2 2025-W08 2025-W18 2025-W28 2025-W38 2025-W48 2026-W06
0 250 500 750 1,000 Peak 2025-W48 · 615 2025-W08: 152025-W09: 432025-W10: 212025-W11: 202025-W12: 62025-W13: 122025-W14: 12025-W15: 22025-W16: 12025-W17: 102025-W18: 42025-W19: 32025-W20: 22025-W21: 32025-W22: 32025-W23: 22025-W24: 52025-W25: 42025-W26: 82025-W27: 92025-W28: 42025-W29: 02025-W30: 02025-W31: 02025-W32: 12025-W33: 02025-W34: 12025-W35: 02025-W36: 22025-W37: 202025-W38: 312025-W39: 512025-W40: 162025-W41: 182025-W42: 652025-W43: 1012025-W44: 1392025-W45: 2012025-W46: 2802025-W47: 4112025-W48: 6152025-W49: 5972025-W50: 3502025-W51: 1272025-W52: 862026-W01: 602026-W02: 312026-W03: 612026-W04: 402026-W05: 192026-W06: 7 2026-W07: 42026-W08: 2 25-W08 25-W33 26-W06
District risk: High risk · score 60

Season peak crossed the 3 SD alert line; the current week is Normal.

Poisson harmonic · backtest MAE 57.8 / RMSE 90.1

Selected by rolling-origin backtesting. A short-term trend reference, not a forecast of outbreak size.

Subdistrict · community matrix

Subdistrict and community risk grid

Subdistrict and community risk grid

Levels combine deviation from a short baseline, recent trend, the short-term outlook and this season's peak. Colour shows how much attention a series needs; expand a subdistrict to see current-week status so that series which have already subsided are not mistaken for active outbreaks.

  • NormalCurrent value, trend and outlook all remain below the short-baseline thresholds.
  • WatchCurrent value or outlook is about 1 SD above the short baseline, or has risen noticeably.
  • WarningCurrent value or outlook is about 2 SD above the short baseline, or has roughly doubled versus the prior 4-week mean.
  • High riskCurrent value or outlook is about 3 SD above the short baseline; manual review recommended.

Select a subdistrict to see its communities

  • Normal
  • Watch
  • Warning
  • High risk

筼筜街道

High risk · score 60 · peak 148 (Nov 24, 2025)

  • 12
  • 1
  • 0
  • 0

Season peak crossed the 3 SD alert line Current week 2; short baseline 46.57 ± 50.87. Naive (last value); next 2 weeks: 2, 2.

槟榔社区

High risk · 60
Total
200
Now
1
Peak
12
Zero wks
51%

Season peak crossed the 3 SD alert line

Croston-SBA · outlook 6, 6

金桥社区

High risk · 60
Total
138
Now
0
Peak
32
Zero wks
61%

Season peak crossed the 3 SD alert line

Croston-SBA · outlook 5, 5

仙阁社区

High risk · 60
Total
95
Now
0
Peak
10
Zero wks
67%

Season peak crossed the 3 SD alert line

Naive (last value) · outlook 0, 0

屿后社区

High risk · 60
Total
70
Now
0
Peak
8
Zero wks
71%

Season peak crossed the 3 SD alert line

Damped trend · outlook 0, 0

一里社区

High risk · 60
Total
57
Now
0
Peak
16
Zero wks
71%

Season peak crossed the 3 SD alert line

Croston-SBA · outlook 1, 1

育秀社区

High risk · 60
Total
53
Now
1
Peak
14
Zero wks
75%

Season peak crossed the 3 SD alert line

Croston-SBA · outlook 1, 1

湖光社区

High risk · 60
Total
43
Now
0
Peak
10
Zero wks
73%

Season peak crossed the 3 SD alert line

Croston-SBA · outlook 1, 1

振兴社区

High risk · 60
Total
39
Now
0
Peak
18
Zero wks
82%

Season peak crossed the 3 SD alert line

Naive (last value) · outlook 0, 0

莲岳社区

High risk · 60
Total
39
Now
0
Peak
8
Zero wks
69%

Season peak crossed the 3 SD alert line

Croston-SBA · outlook 1, 1

官任社区

High risk · 60
Total
38
Now
0
Peak
9
Zero wks
77%

Season peak crossed the 3 SD alert line

Croston-SBA · outlook 0, 0

岳阳社区

High risk · 60
Total
31
Now
0
Peak
5
Zero wks
75%

Season peak crossed the 3 SD alert line

Poisson harmonic · outlook 0, 0

仙岳社区

High risk · 60
Total
20
Now
0
Peak
6
Zero wks
80%

Season peak crossed the 3 SD alert line

Croston-SBA · outlook 0, 0

四里社区

Warning · 50
Total
16
Now
0
Peak
4
Zero wks
84%

Season peak crossed the 2 SD watch line

monitor only · low total

莲前街道

High risk · score 60 · peak 43 (Oct 27, 2025)

  • 11
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4

Season peak crossed the 3 SD alert line Current week 1; short baseline 39.86 ± 48.66. Naive (last value); next 2 weeks: 1, 1.

前埔南社区

High risk · 60
Total
98
Now
1
Peak
17
Zero wks
57%

Season peak crossed the 3 SD alert line

Naive (last value) · outlook 1, 1

前埔东社区

High risk · 60
Total
97
Now
0
Peak
10
Zero wks
71%

Season peak crossed the 3 SD alert line

Croston-SBA · outlook 3, 3

洪文社区

High risk · 60
Total
96
Now
0
Peak
15
Zero wks
73%

Season peak crossed the 3 SD alert line

Naive (last value) · outlook 0, 0

岭兜社区

High risk · 61
Total
80
Now
0
Peak
19
Zero wks
67%

Season peak crossed the 3 SD alert line

Croston-SBA · outlook 3, 3

金鸡亭社区

High risk · 60
Total
66
Now
0
Peak
19
Zero wks
71%

Season peak crossed the 3 SD alert line

Croston-SBA · outlook 2, 2

瑞景社区

High risk · 60
Total
63
Now
0
Peak
8
Zero wks
71%

Season peak crossed the 3 SD alert line

Croston-SBA · outlook 1, 1

莲云社区

High risk · 60
Total
57
Now
0
Peak
17
Zero wks
69%

Season peak crossed the 3 SD alert line

Croston-SBA · outlook 2, 2

前埔北社区

High risk · 60
Total
55
Now
0
Peak
9
Zero wks
65%

Season peak crossed the 3 SD alert line

Croston-SBA · outlook 1, 1

观音山社区

High risk · 60
Total
47
Now
0
Peak
11
Zero wks
73%

Season peak crossed the 3 SD alert line

Naive (last value) · outlook 0, 0

何厝社区

High risk · 60
Total
21
Now
0
Peak
8
Zero wks
92%

Season peak crossed the 3 SD alert line

monitor only · few non-zero weeks, zero-inflated

莲薇社区

High risk · 60
Total
11
Now
0
Peak
9
Zero wks
94%

Season peak crossed the 3 SD alert line

monitor only · low total, few non-zero weeks, zero-inflated, single spike dominates, too volatile

前埔西社区

Warning · 50
Total
10
Now
0
Peak
3
Zero wks
90%

Season peak crossed the 2 SD watch line

monitor only · low total, few non-zero weeks, zero-inflated

莲翔社区

Warning · 50
Total
10
Now
0
Peak
3
Zero wks
86%

Season peak crossed the 2 SD watch line

monitor only · low total, few non-zero weeks, zero-inflated

塔埔社区

Watch · 30
Total
7
Now
0
Peak
2
Zero wks
88%

Season peak rose above the short baseline

monitor only · low total, few non-zero weeks, zero-inflated

龙山桥社区

Watch · 30
Total
7
Now
0
Peak
2
Zero wks
88%

Season peak rose above the short baseline

monitor only · low total, few non-zero weeks, zero-inflated

前埔社区

Watch · 30
Total
3
Now
0
Peak
2
Zero wks
96%

Season peak rose above the short baseline

monitor only · low total, few non-zero weeks, zero-inflated, single spike dominates, too volatile

万景社区

Normal · 8
Total
7
Now
0
Peak
1
Zero wks
86%

Has not crossed the baseline or trend thresholds

monitor only · low total, few non-zero weeks, zero-inflated

莲丰社区

Normal · 8
Total
4
Now
0
Peak
1
Zero wks
92%

Has not crossed the baseline or trend thresholds

monitor only · low total, few non-zero weeks, zero-inflated

莲成社区

Normal · 8
Total
4
Now
0
Peak
1
Zero wks
92%

Has not crossed the baseline or trend thresholds

monitor only · low total, few non-zero weeks, zero-inflated

侨福社区

Normal · 8
Total
2
Now
0
Peak
1
Zero wks
96%

Has not crossed the baseline or trend thresholds

monitor only · low total, few non-zero weeks, zero-inflated, too volatile

嘉莲街道

High risk · score 60 · peak 59 (Nov 17, 2025)

  • 9
  • 0
  • 1
  • 0

Season peak crossed the 3 SD alert line Current week 2; short baseline 25.71 ± 34.14. Naive (last value); next 2 weeks: 2, 2.

盈翠社区

High risk · 60
Total
166
Now
1
Peak
17
Zero wks
55%

Season peak crossed the 3 SD alert line

Croston-SBA · outlook 4, 4

莲西社区

High risk · 60
Total
80
Now
0
Peak
10
Zero wks
73%

Season peak crossed the 3 SD alert line

Croston-SBA · outlook 1, 1

莲秀社区

High risk · 60
Total
79
Now
0
Peak
9
Zero wks
59%

Season peak crossed the 3 SD alert line

Croston-SBA · outlook 3, 3

莲花五村社区

High risk · 60
Total
54
Now
0
Peak
19
Zero wks
77%

Season peak crossed the 3 SD alert line

Naive (last value) · outlook 0, 0

松柏社区

High risk · 60
Total
43
Now
0
Peak
12
Zero wks
75%

Season peak crossed the 3 SD alert line

Croston-SBA · outlook 1, 1

莲花北社区

High risk · 60
Total
40
Now
0
Peak
8
Zero wks
77%

Season peak crossed the 3 SD alert line

Damped trend · outlook 0, 0

长青社区

High risk · 60
Total
34
Now
1
Peak
7
Zero wks
73%

Season peak crossed the 3 SD alert line

Croston-SBA · outlook 1, 1

华福社区

High risk · 60
Total
23
Now
0
Peak
8
Zero wks
78%

Season peak crossed the 3 SD alert line

Croston-SBA · outlook 0, 0

龙山社区

High risk · 60
Total
17
Now
0
Peak
7
Zero wks
80%

Season peak crossed the 3 SD alert line

monitor only · low total

莲兴社区

Watch · 30
Total
6
Now
0
Peak
2
Zero wks
90%

Season peak rose above the short baseline

monitor only · low total, few non-zero weeks, zero-inflated

开元街道

High risk · score 62 · peak 32 (Nov 3, 2025)

  • 6
  • 1
  • 2
  • 2

Season peak crossed the 3 SD alert line Current week 0; short baseline 23.29 ± 25.52. Croston-SBA; next 2 weeks: 13, 13.

虎溪社区

High risk · 68
Total
120
Now
0
Peak
33
Zero wks
67%

Season peak crossed the 3 SD alert line

Croston-SBA · outlook 3, 3

溪岸社区

High risk · 60
Total
76
Now
0
Peak
23
Zero wks
73%

Season peak crossed the 3 SD alert line

Croston-SBA · outlook 2, 2

天湖社区

High risk · 60
Total
75
Now
0
Peak
15
Zero wks
69%

Season peak crossed the 3 SD alert line

Croston-SBA · outlook 1, 1

育青社区

High risk · 60
Total
51
Now
0
Peak
11
Zero wks
65%

Season peak crossed the 3 SD alert line

Croston-SBA · outlook 1, 1

西边社区

High risk · 60
Total
41
Now
0
Peak
12
Zero wks
80%

Season peak crossed the 3 SD alert line

Croston-SBA · outlook 1, 1

美湖社区

High risk · 60
Total
31
Now
0
Peak
7
Zero wks
80%

Season peak crossed the 3 SD alert line

Croston-SBA · outlook 0, 0

希望社区

Warning · 50
Total
4
Now
0
Peak
3
Zero wks
96%

Season peak crossed the 2 SD watch line

monitor only · low total, few non-zero weeks, zero-inflated, single spike dominates, too volatile

湖滨社区

Watch · 30
Total
7
Now
0
Peak
2
Zero wks
88%

Season peak rose above the short baseline

monitor only · low total, few non-zero weeks, zero-inflated

将军祠社区

Watch · 30
Total
3
Now
0
Peak
2
Zero wks
96%

Season peak rose above the short baseline

monitor only · low total, few non-zero weeks, zero-inflated, single spike dominates, too volatile

坑内社区

Normal · 8
Total
2
Now
0
Peak
1
Zero wks
96%

Has not crossed the baseline or trend thresholds

monitor only · low total, few non-zero weeks, zero-inflated, too volatile

美仁社区

Normal · 8
Total
2
Now
0
Peak
1
Zero wks
96%

Has not crossed the baseline or trend thresholds

monitor only · low total, few non-zero weeks, zero-inflated, too volatile

梧村街道

High risk · score 60 · peak 18 (Oct 20, 2025)

  • 5
  • 2
  • 0
  • 4

Season peak crossed the 3 SD alert line Current week 0; short baseline 13.86 ± 18.02. Naive (last value); next 2 weeks: 0, 0.

金榜山社区

High risk · 60
Total
81
Now
0
Peak
10
Zero wks
71%

Season peak crossed the 3 SD alert line

Croston-SBA · outlook 3, 3

溪东社区

High risk · 60
Total
50
Now
0
Peak
13
Zero wks
75%

Season peak crossed the 3 SD alert line

Croston-SBA · outlook 1, 1

万寿北社区

High risk · 60
Total
48
Now
0
Peak
11
Zero wks
71%

Season peak crossed the 3 SD alert line

Croston-SBA · outlook 1, 1

梧村社区

High risk · 60
Total
24
Now
0
Peak
7
Zero wks
80%

Season peak crossed the 3 SD alert line

Croston-SBA · outlook 1, 1

双涵社区

High risk · 60
Total
9
Now
0
Peak
6
Zero wks
94%

Season peak crossed the 3 SD alert line

monitor only · low total, few non-zero weeks, zero-inflated, single spike dominates, too volatile

浦南社区

Warning · 50
Total
18
Now
0
Peak
4
Zero wks
80%

Season peak crossed the 2 SD watch line

monitor only · low total

滨中社区

Warning · 50
Total
9
Now
0
Peak
3
Zero wks
90%

Season peak crossed the 2 SD watch line

monitor only · low total, few non-zero weeks, zero-inflated

东坪社区

Normal · 8
Total
5
Now
0
Peak
1
Zero wks
90%

Has not crossed the baseline or trend thresholds

monitor only · low total, few non-zero weeks, zero-inflated

文灶社区

Normal · 8
Total
5
Now
0
Peak
1
Zero wks
90%

Has not crossed the baseline or trend thresholds

monitor only · low total, few non-zero weeks, zero-inflated

金祥社区

Normal · 8
Total
4
Now
0
Peak
1
Zero wks
94%

Has not crossed the baseline or trend thresholds

monitor only · low total, few non-zero weeks, zero-inflated, too volatile

文屏社区

Normal · 8
Total
2
Now
0
Peak
1
Zero wks
96%

Has not crossed the baseline or trend thresholds

monitor only · low total, few non-zero weeks, zero-inflated, too volatile

中华街道

High risk · score 60 · peak 39 (Nov 17, 2025)

  • 4
  • 1
  • 1
  • 0

Season peak crossed the 3 SD alert line Current week 0; short baseline 10.71 ± 8.24. Naive (last value); next 2 weeks: 0, 0.

镇海社区

High risk · 60
Total
85
Now
0
Peak
20
Zero wks
75%

Season peak crossed the 3 SD alert line

Croston-SBA · outlook 1, 1

仁安社区

High risk · 60
Total
61
Now
0
Peak
15
Zero wks
71%

Season peak crossed the 3 SD alert line

Damped trend · outlook 0, 0

中山社区

High risk · 60
Total
30
Now
0
Peak
5
Zero wks
73%

Season peak crossed the 3 SD alert line

Poisson harmonic · outlook 0, 0

霞溪社区

High risk · 60
Total
22
Now
0
Peak
5
Zero wks
86%

Season peak crossed the 3 SD alert line

monitor only · few non-zero weeks, zero-inflated

文安社区

Warning · 50
Total
13
Now
0
Peak
3
Zero wks
82%

Season peak crossed the 2 SD watch line

monitor only · low total

思南社区

Watch · 30
Total
12
Now
0
Peak
3
Zero wks
86%

Season peak rose above the short baseline

monitor only · low total, few non-zero weeks, zero-inflated

鹭江街道

High risk · score 60 · peak 23 (Nov 17, 2025)

  • 2
  • 4
  • 0
  • 0

Season peak crossed the 3 SD alert line Current week 1; short baseline 7.57 ± 7.63. Croston-SBA; next 2 weeks: 5, 5.

小学社区

High risk · 60
Total
63
Now
0
Peak
12
Zero wks
75%

Season peak crossed the 3 SD alert line

Naive (last value) · outlook 0, 0

双莲池社区

High risk · 60
Total
49
Now
0
Peak
11
Zero wks
65%

Season peak crossed the 3 SD alert line

Croston-SBA · outlook 2, 2

厦禾社区

Warning · 50
Total
21
Now
0
Peak
4
Zero wks
80%

Season peak crossed the 2 SD watch line

Croston-SBA · outlook 0, 0

禾祥西社区

Warning · 50
Total
17
Now
1
Peak
3
Zero wks
82%

Season peak crossed the 2 SD watch line

monitor only · low total

鹭江道社区

Warning · 50
Total
15
Now
0
Peak
3
Zero wks
78%

Season peak crossed the 2 SD watch line

monitor only · low total

营平社区

Warning · 50
Total
9
Now
0
Peak
4
Zero wks
90%

Season peak crossed the 2 SD watch line

monitor only · low total, few non-zero weeks, zero-inflated

厦港街道

High risk · score 60 · peak 24 (Nov 24, 2025)

  • 3
  • 0
  • 0
  • 1

Season peak crossed the 3 SD alert line Current week 1; short baseline 10.29 ± 9.62. Naive (last value); next 2 weeks: 1, 1.

下沃社区

High risk · 60
Total
57
Now
1
Peak
12
Zero wks
65%

Season peak crossed the 3 SD alert line

Naive (last value) · outlook 1, 1

巡司顶社区

High risk · 60
Total
57
Now
0
Peak
7
Zero wks
71%

Season peak crossed the 3 SD alert line

Croston-SBA · outlook 1, 1

蜂巢山社区

High risk · 60
Total
43
Now
0
Peak
9
Zero wks
77%

Season peak crossed the 3 SD alert line

Naive (last value) · outlook 0, 0

南华社区

Normal · 8
Total
1
Now
0
Peak
0
Zero wks
98%

Has not crossed the baseline or trend thresholds

monitor only · low total, few non-zero weeks, zero-inflated, single spike dominates, too volatile

滨海街道

High risk · score 66 · peak 25 (Nov 24, 2025)

  • 3
  • 0
  • 1
  • 0

Season peak crossed the 3 SD alert line Current week 0; short baseline 7 ± 7.66. Croston-SBA; next 2 weeks: 3, 3.

黄厝社区

High risk · 60
Total
44
Now
0
Peak
11
Zero wks
77%

Season peak crossed the 3 SD alert line

Croston-SBA · outlook 1, 1

曾厝垵社区

High risk · 60
Total
25
Now
0
Peak
8
Zero wks
80%

Season peak crossed the 3 SD alert line

Naive (last value) · outlook 0, 0

上李社区

High risk · 60
Total
19
Now
0
Peak
9
Zero wks
88%

Season peak crossed the 3 SD alert line

monitor only · low total, few non-zero weeks, zero-inflated

演武社区

Watch · 30
Total
12
Now
0
Peak
2
Zero wks
84%

Season peak rose above the short baseline

monitor only · low total

鼓浪屿街道

High risk · score 60 · peak 18 (Nov 17, 2025)

  • 1
  • 0
  • 0
  • 1

Season peak crossed the 3 SD alert line Current week 0; short baseline 2.57 ± 3.99. Croston-SBA; next 2 weeks: 1, 1.

内厝社区

High risk · 60
Total
58
Now
0
Peak
18
Zero wks
77%

Season peak crossed the 3 SD alert line

Croston-SBA · outlook 1, 1

龙头社区

Normal · 8
Total
2
Now
0
Peak
1
Zero wks
96%

Has not crossed the baseline or trend thresholds

monitor only · low total, few non-zero weeks, zero-inflated, too volatile

Methods & API

Models and API status

Outlooks come from 5 candidate models, chosen per series by rolling-origin backtesting. Series with very low totals, too few non-zero weeks, heavy zero inflation or a single dominant spike are monitored only, with no numeric forecast.

Series where each model was selected

  • Croston-SBA 40
  • Naive (last value) 16
  • Poisson harmonic 3
  • Damped trend 3

AI Lab's create-series, ingest and training pipeline has been verified. With only 51 weeks of data, the general forecasting endpoint (which needs at least 60 points) declines to run, so this page shows the local batch experiment instead.

References